The Conference Board publishes regular survey results that it commissions to measure "consumer confidence." 50 is neutral, 100 is where consumer confidence was in 1985, the index was started in 1967. The February survey registered its lowest reading ever, 25.0.
Notable past numbers and geo-political benchmarks- Nixon's resignation- 91; Berlin Wall came down 115.1; Lowest during the Iranian hostage crisis- 50.1 (May, 1980), 9/11- 85.3; the low of the mid-70s recession- 43.2. "Whip Inflation Now"
In my business I talk with a cross-section of America. Increasingly, there seems a broad consensus that "the fix is in." People are increasingly feeling that the playing field is rigged and that crooks have made a lot of money (arbitragers, bankers, oil and gas) and most of us are just fuel for their game. "Buy and Hold" is wiping out our net worth.
Did I mention the stock market was flat- no gain between 1966 and 1983.
The only hope I have is the old wisdom that the market doesn't turn until all the news is bad and all the optimism is wrung out. I think we're there. Turn, market, turn.
The last year on the Mayan calendar is 2012.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
A Billion
A Billion is... the number of emails sent in 5.3 minutes!
Now big numbers- Trillions
The market capitalization of the US stock market in May 2007 was about $15.35 trillion (13, 400 on the Dow). Since then the drop in the stock market has wiped out 7.5 Trillion dollars in capital, the drop in home values to date has wiped out about 5 Trillion dollars, planned for (worst case scenario) in the housing recovery plan is another 2.8 Trillion dollars lost. We have lost the equivalent of 80% of the market capitalization of the US stock market in two years!
Now bring some of this home. It's been said that most Americans biggest asset was their house. If this was true at the beginning of the fall and we assume the average time in a house is 4.1 years, and we assume that most people had between 0 and 20% equity in a home they purchased in the last 5 years, just the lost in home values (28%) has wiped out the "average Americans" net worth. On top of that with the drop in the stock market the "average American" now has a net worth the negative of what their positive net worth was two years ago.
From 1964 to 1981 the US stock market was FLAT! Since I'm turning 50 this month and have lost almost all of my net worth I'm financially screwed. Compounding works way better when there's positive growth! Thankfully, I enjoyed a few great years in my 40s. I may never be retired again.
Our only wealth is the relationships that we enjoy with people we love. These are times that test those relationships, nurture them and smile!
Now big numbers- Trillions
The market capitalization of the US stock market in May 2007 was about $15.35 trillion (13, 400 on the Dow). Since then the drop in the stock market has wiped out 7.5 Trillion dollars in capital, the drop in home values to date has wiped out about 5 Trillion dollars, planned for (worst case scenario) in the housing recovery plan is another 2.8 Trillion dollars lost. We have lost the equivalent of 80% of the market capitalization of the US stock market in two years!
Now bring some of this home. It's been said that most Americans biggest asset was their house. If this was true at the beginning of the fall and we assume the average time in a house is 4.1 years, and we assume that most people had between 0 and 20% equity in a home they purchased in the last 5 years, just the lost in home values (28%) has wiped out the "average Americans" net worth. On top of that with the drop in the stock market the "average American" now has a net worth the negative of what their positive net worth was two years ago.
From 1964 to 1981 the US stock market was FLAT! Since I'm turning 50 this month and have lost almost all of my net worth I'm financially screwed. Compounding works way better when there's positive growth! Thankfully, I enjoyed a few great years in my 40s. I may never be retired again.
Our only wealth is the relationships that we enjoy with people we love. These are times that test those relationships, nurture them and smile!
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